LEE KUAN YEW -- 2005 

Win-win Approach for China's" Peaceful Rise 

China's rise has sent tremors to the rest of the world. Together with India's rise, in 20 to 30 years the centre of gravity of the world will shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific and Indian Oceans. China's transformation from a centrally-planned static economy into a dynamic high growth economy has been impressive. It has attracted massive foreign direct investments and its exports are changing world trade patterns and cargo flows. Many nations observing the spread of China's growth are fearful for their future positions, and thinkers foresee major changes in the world balance of power. Inevitably, China will move up the economic and political pecking order.

America and Japan are most alert over China's resurgence and corresponding increase in military capabilities. America is wary of a challenge to its super-power status. Japan, after its aggression in China starting with the annexation of Formosa or Taiwan in 1895, has deep fears of revanchist tendencies in China.

China's neighbours, Korea, Vietnam will be uneasy but not unduly overwrought.

Russia is unlikely to be alarmed by China's rise. With its huge arsenal of nuclear weapons, it remains a formidable power. Moreover China is a good trading partner, and a market for Russian conventional weapons.

A recent BBC survey showed that Europeans are not uncomfortable with the rise of China :

As of the 6 EU members polled, a plurality of citizens view China's influence as positive, in France(49%), Great Britain(46%), Italy(42%), and Spain(37%); a plurality view Chinese influence as negative, Germany(47%) and Poland(33%). No EU country has a majority which perceived Chinese influence negatively.

Several EU governments view China's rise as creating another centre of power and will redress the overwhelming weight of the United States.

Joseph Nye, former US Assistant Secretary of Defence and Director of the National Intelligence Services recently wrote,"The??rise of China' is a misnomer. "Re-emergence" would be more accurate, since the Middle Kingdom has long been a major power in East Asia. Technically and economically, China was the world's leader(though without global reach) from 500 to 1500. Only in the past half-millennium was it overtaken by Europe and America. The Asian Development Bank has estimated that in 1820, at the beginning of the industrial age, Asia accounted for three-fifths of world output. By 1940, this fell to one-fifth, even though Asia was home to three-fifths of the world's population. Rapid economic growth has brought output back to two-fifths of the world total today, and the ADB speculates that Asia could return to its historical levels by 2025."

I believe the present generation of Chinese leaders know China is far behind America and that strong economic growth is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to make China a world power. What China needs is the brainpower and intellectual ferment that enable nations to create and master a broad range of leading edge technology. At present the US, EU and Japan are well ahead in bioscience, nanotechnology, etc, technologies that can lift mankind to a higher level and give the pioneer nation an edge over all others. China can only play catch-up, so its global influence will be constrained. Nevertheless China is aware that the US views it as its only possible challenger.

China needs peace and stability domestically and abroad to become as a modern nation in 50 or more years.

On 11 Jan 1994, I met Liu Huaqing, Vice-Chairman of the PRC Central Military Commission. He had fought as a guerrilla in Shandong for many years. After the People's Republic was founded, Mao sent Liu to Leningrad, Russia, to learn to build a navy to guard China's long coastline. I said Russia's technology was inferior to America's. Liu said no one should underestimate Soviet science and technology. They made first-class weapons. What was wrong was their Soviet economic system. Soviet investment in military research and development and arms production was disproportionate to their civil economy. Eventually their civilian technology and economy could not support their military expenditure and led to their economic collapse. China, he said, must never make that mistake. Asked how long China would need to modernise, he repeated Deng's"50 years". And he added China must have the technology and economy in the civilian sector that could support its military expenditure and technology development, otherwise it would face a Soviet-style collapse. He knew the pitfalls China should avoid.

China's strategy to avoid conflicts.

China is drafting a strategy to guide its future development. They have identified three key challenges(1) energy depletion,(2) a deteriorating ecosystem,(3) an imbalance between its economic growth and society's development. In response, China will consciously set out to overcome the three anachronisms?C(a) overcome the old inefficient path of industrialisation and implement a new, sustainable model;(b) eschew the traditional approach of hegemonistic emergence and the outdated, old Cold War mentality, and(c) overcome the weak links in governance to build a"harmonious" society. Hence China will pursue the"peaceful emergence" approachand continue to develop well into the 21st century.

By this strategy, China avoids the path that Japan and Germany travelled in the 19th and 20th centuries. In the 19th century countries such as Japan and Germany sought imperial expansion in order to gain new resources?C to increase living space or lebensraum. The pursuit of such policies at the expense of other countries has led to wars, destruction and eventual defeat.

This doctrine for China's"Peaceful Rise" shows that China is aware that its rapid growth is creating enormous pressures in the international system, and they need to craft a development strategy that will avoid conflict. No one can be certain if peaceful solutions can always be found when nations interact and jostle in a rapidly changing world. However China's expressed intention to pursue a peaceful strategy for development is promising. Meanwhile, China is abiding by the existing rules for world order, having undertaken to conform to the rules of the WTO and other multilateral regimes.

China plans to avoid the competition for limited resources by abjuring overseas conquest and instead seeks greater economic cooperation in win-win solutions.

Asean countries are well aware of China's rise and from time to time feel uncomfortable with China's assertiveness. In the 1980s and early 90s, China pressed its claims to all the islands in the Spratleys and the Paracels. In the late 1990s, China changed its approach. Instead of pre-empting by occupying more islets to assert its claims based on old Chinese maps, causing tensions with the Philippines and Vietnam, China has now offered to share exploitation of any oil or gas in the disputed areas between China, Philippines and Vietnam. This is win-win situation.

In November 2000 then Premier Zhu Rongji offered Asean a Free Trade Area(FTA) agreement. The offer is attractive because it gives Asean"early harvesting", ie Asean gets free trade benefits first, before China exercises its rights. China's economy will grow, whether or not there is a free trade agreement with Asean. Offering Asean such a free trade agreement shows good intentions, allowing Asean to maximise its exports to the Chinese market. This is a win-win approach China has taken with its smaller neighbours.

A Renaissance - Not a Bid for Military Power

No nation has ever become the major power without a clear lead in technology, both civilian and military. From the Roman legions, to the naval powers of Portugal, Spain and Great Britain, to Germany in World War I and the US post World War II, great power status was achieved by those nations that were able to harness their technological advantage for holistic development of their civilian and military capabilities. Germany was able to equal British industrial and technological capabilities by 1914 when WW1 broke out. Japan's economic and technological superiority was greater than that of China and Russia when it defeated them in 1895 and 1905 respectively. It was hubris that made Japan attack Pearl Harbour when it was not equal to America in economic, industrial or technological capabilities. Japan was crushed in defeat.

It is better for China to manifest its rapid growth not in military muscle but in cultural revitalisation- a return to China's golden age?C the Han, Tang and Ming era, when the arts and culture flourished in a prosperous society.

During the Han dynasty, China made great strides in historiography, arts and science, including the invention of paper.

The Tang dynasty saw innovations in the arts and technology. Block printing made the written word available to a vastly wider audience. Chang'an(now Xian) was the world's largest city with streets well laid out in grid fashion. Kyoto in Japan was modelled after Chang'an.

The Ming dynasty was a time of cultural renewal. The porcelain industry, reached an unprecedented height. Chinese merchants and Admiral Zheng He explored the Indian Ocean, reaching East Africa. Many books were printed using movable type.

A cultural revival in China can express itself in novels, poetry, drama, literary works, architecture, paintings, sculptures, films, TV features, cartoons, video games, fashion and clothes, good cuisine and a gracious living. By allowing many schools of the arts, culture, philosophy and politics to contend, China will ensure a vibrant cultural efflorescence.

In this way, China watchers, scholars and media the world over will then see that China's ambition is not to conquer the world, but to rekindle its civilisation with a vibrant, high and popular culture, when the Chinese enjoyed the high standards of living and quality of life. Such a China would be attractive to the world. Even Americans and Japanese will be favourably influenced by such a revival of Chinese arts and culture.

It is, in short, a"renaissance" or[??]???in Chinese. Renaissance is a revival of learning and culture, of intellectual and artistic achievement and vigour, and of peace, prosperity. It is the efflorescence and a rediscovering of a great civilisation which can only happen under conditions of peace and stability and economic abundance.

The Italian Renaissance was intertwined with the intellectual movement of Renaissance humanism, which focussed on human interests and values, laying stress on the dignity of the individual. The Chinese government's emphasis on governance for the people(?????,???), embraces the same ideals.

A renaissance of China in the context of contemporary global civilisation can trace their roots to China's distinctive past. The success of Zhang Yimou's films, including in the West, is an example a new sustained period of cultural engagement and acceptance in the 21st century.

Artistic Freedom needed for a flowering of arts and culture

To achieve this, China needs to maintain an open environment, one that encourages freedom of artistic expression and the free exchange of ideas among Chinese and between China and the world at large. "Let a hundred flowers bloom, let a hundred schools of thought contend." Fittingly, the popular cinematic awards are also known as the"hundred flowers" award(?????).

All said and done, it is China's deeds not its words that will be conclusive. The whole world will rejoice to see China encouraging its culture to flourish in a free market as it is doing with its economy. They will want to see where China channels its efforts and growing resources.

What happened to the USSR when they diverted so much of its resources in heavy industries and military technology and failed to keep pace with US technology and economy is a lesson China cannot afford to forget.

There is logic and merit in China's doctrine of peaceful emergence. Taiwan however is an unwanted distraction. But if Taiwan were to go for independence, China has made clear it will intervene, whatever the consequences. Hence the significance of the anti-secession law. America's response was to get Japan to declare that Taiwan is included in their joint security interests. America and Japan have to ensure that the Taiwanese President does not push the envelope too far or they will be dragged into a nasty war. The situation across the Taiwan Straits has always been delicate and difficult, but war is not inevitable. Prudence on both sides will make war unlikely.

As Joseph Nye, wrote: "If, for example, Taiwan were to declare independence, China would likely intervene with armed force, regardless of the perceived economic or military costs. But it would be unlikely to win such a war, and prudent policy on both sides can make such a war unlikely."

China's"peaceful emergence", is in everyone's interest. An"unpeaceful rise" will mean conflict and chaos in the entire Asia-Pacific region.

China and India both re-awakened in a peaceful and stable Asia is good for the world. They will be sources of a new vitality, adding to the discoveries in science and technology to improve the human condition.

 

李光耀 -- 2005-  

雙贏适合中國和平性的成長
<translated by Info@WTOBO.com >

中國的成長使得世界其他地方受到震憾。在20 到30 年內中國与印度的成長會將這個世界的重心從大西洋轉移到太平洋和印第安海洋。中國的變革從中央計划的靜態經濟進入動態高成長經濟是舉世印象深刻的。 它吸引許多外國直接投資 并且 它的出口改變世界貿易樣式及貨物流動。 許多國家觀察 中國的成長和擴大為他們的未來位置覺得可怕, 并且思想家們預見在世界權力平衡上有重要變化。不可避免地, 中國將升動經濟和政治的世界次序。

中國的浪潮和對應成長﹐美國和日本是在軍事能力方面最机敏的。美國對挑戰它超
級大國狀態 是机警的。 日本, 1895 年在它的侵略中國從福爾摩薩或台灣的吞并之后, 顯示出對中國的報复傾向深為恐懼。

中國的 鄰居, 韓國, 越南略緊張但不過度心神不安 。

俄國不太可能警訊於中國的成長。它保有核武器與其它的巨大武庫的強大力量。而且中國是一個好貿易伙伴, 和俄國常規武器的市場。

一 份最近英國傳播公司 調查表示歐洲對中國的成長不覺得難受:

6 個歐盟成員進行民意測驗, 公民普遍對於中國的影響指標﹐法國France(49%), 英國Britain(46%), 意大利Italy(42%), 和西班牙Spain(37%) 認為中國有正面影響性; 德國Germany(47%) 和波蘭Poland(33%) 認為中國有負面影響。歐洲國家大多數沒有覺得中國有負面地影響。

歐盟政府們觀測中國的成長成為新的力量中心將再平衡美國的巨大重量。

約瑟夫Nye, 前美國國防助理秘書和國家情報局主任 最近寫了, " 中國篡升 是誤稱
" 應是再次凸顯" 是比較准确的, 因為中國長期是東亞主要力量。 在技術上和經濟上, 從西元500年到1500年,中國是世界領導者(當時尚沒有全球性伸手可及的距离)。只在過去五百年在它追上由歐洲和美國。亞洲開發銀行估計 , 在1820年工業時代的開始, 亞洲占世界產品的五分之三。在1940 年下跌到1/5, 雖然亞洲人口仍然占世界人口的五分之三。今日迅速經濟增長使亞洲回到世界產品的五分之二, 并且亞洲開發銀行 推測亞洲能在2025 年以前返回它的歷史水平。

" 我相信當前世代中國領導們知道中國是遠在美國之后并且堅強經濟增長是必要但
不足以使中國成為世界強國。中國需要的是使國家有創意掌握前沿技術寬廣范圍運
用和智力發酵的大頭腦。目前美國, 歐盟 和日本領先在生物科技,納米科技, 等, 
這些可能提升人類到比較高的水平并且給先進國家一 個超越其余國家的領域。中國只可能在后追赶,中國的 全球性影響將受到壓抑。然而 中國知道美國把中國當作唯一可能的挑戰者。

要成為一個現代國家中國在 50 或更多年內需要國內外和平及安定。

1994 年 1月11 日,我遇見劉華清, 中華人民共和國中央軍事委員會的副會長。他曾作為一個游擊隊員在山東戰斗許多年。在中華人民共和國建立之后, 毛澤東送劉到俄國列宁格勒, 學建立海軍守衛中國的長海岸線。我說 俄國技術比美國低。劉說人們不應該低估蘇聯科學和技術。他們制造一流武器。什么是錯誤是他們的蘇聯經濟體制。蘇聯投資在軍事研究与發展和武器生產對他們的民生經濟是不均衡。最后他們的民用技術和經濟沒有能支持他們的軍事開支和導 致他們的經濟崩潰。劉說, 中國絕不可犯那錯誤。問多久中國會現代化, 他重覆鄧小平的50年 。并且他補充中國必須 有民生技術和經濟才能支持它的軍事開支和技術發展, 否則面對蘇維埃樣式崩潰。他知道中國應該避免陷阱。

中國的策略避免沖突

中國正在起草策略引導國家未來發展。他們确認三項挑戰( 1) 能量耗盡, (2) 惡化
的 生態系, (3) 經濟增長和社會發展之間的不平衡狀態。中國將清楚地下決心克服
三項舊時代落伍事務 (a) 克服舊工業化無效率的方式和實施新而能長久的模式;(b) 
避免傳統思維方法并且放棄過時舊冷戰心態, (c) 克服管理層次弱的鏈接建立和諧
社會。如此中國將可追求和平并且在 21 世紀繼續顯現出良好發展。

由這個策略, 中國避免日本和德國在第19 和20 世紀進行的道路。在19 世紀國家 
譬如日本和德國為了獲取新資源進行帝國主義擴展。 為追求增加生存空間或納粹生活圈不惜犧牲其它國家 ,這樣政策導致戰爭, 毀坏和最后自身失敗。

這個可作為中國的和平性成長" 這個可作為中國的?和平性成長"
成極大壓力, 并且中國領導人們需要制訂將如何避免沖突的發展戰略。在一個迅速
地改變的世界,國家間互動推擠頻繁沒有人能确定永遠能找到和平的解決方法。然
而中國表達 的意圖要追求一個和平發展策略是有顯著意義的。同時, 中國正在遵守現有世界秩序規則, 与世界貿易組織WTO 和其它多邊政體的規則有一致性。

中國計划避免為有限的資源競爭,公開棄決征伐外國而尋求擴大雙贏經濟合作的解
決方法。

亞洲國家十分知曉中國的升長和時常對中國的武斷主張感受難受。在80年代和早期 90s, 中國對所有無人海島聲明主權國 。在90 年代晚期, 中國改變它的方法根据老中國地圖。占据更多小島 , 造成与菲律賓和越南緊張局勢, 中國現在提供在中國, 菲律賓和越南之間爭執的區域大家分享任石油或天然气的開發。這是雙贏的情況。

在11月2000年 總理朱鎔基提供南亞國家協會一個自由貿易 (FTA) 協議。這個提議
是有吸引力的因為它先給南亞國家協會收獲, ie 在中國使用它的權利之前,南亞國
家協會首先得到自由貿易好處。中國的經濟會增長, 不一定要与南亞國家協會有自
由貿易協議。 提供的南亞國家協會這樣一自由貿易協議顯示好意圖 , 使得南亞國
家協會擴大化它對中國市場的出口。這是中國對比較小的鄰居們的雙贏方法。

文化复興 - 不是競標軍事力量

若沒有遙遙領先的民生和軍事科技,任何國家都不能成為主要大國。從羅馬軍隊, 到葡萄牙, 西班牙和大英國的海軍力量, 到德國在第一次世界大戰和美國在第二次世
界大戰, 巨大力量狀態成就于那些國家達到能夠套好他們民用和軍事能力全部發展。德國在1914 年當第一次世界大戰發生時能夠赶上英國的 工業和科技能力。 日本經濟和科技性优勢大于中國和俄國各自地擊敗他們于1895 年和1905 年。然而日本攻擊珍珠當它不是和美國在經濟, 工業或科技性能力相等時。日本被擊碎打敗。

中國體現它的迅速成長較适合不是在軍事勢力里而是在文化复興回歸到中國的黃金
時代,漢,唐,明等時代, 當時藝術和文化茂盛興旺的社會。

在漢朝其間, 中國有了不起的進步在歷史編篡, 藝術和科學, 包括紙的發明。

唐朝看到在藝術和技術的創新。活字打印使得書詞可傳播給更較寬廣的民眾。長安
(現稱西安) 是 世界最大的城市所有街道以柵格規格計划。日本京都就是仿造長安。


明朝是文化更新的時期。瓷產業達到史無前例的高峰。中國客商和三寶太監鄭和探
索印度洋, 到達東非洲。許多書籍都是用活字打印出來。

文化复興在中國可能用小說, 詩歌, 戲曲, 文藝作品, 建筑學, 繪畫, 雕塑 , 膠片
, 電視節目, 卡通漫畫, 電動游戲, 時尚和服飾, 美食烹調和雅美生活來表達。由
允許多元藝術, 文化, 哲學和政治門派角逐, 中國將促進多彩多姿文化隆盛期。

如此一來 , 中國觀察家, 學者和媒介世界看見中國的志向不是征服世界而是再振作
它的生動, 高和普及的文明文化, 中國人喜愛高生活水准和生活品質。這樣中國對
這個世界是有吸引力的。即使美國人和日本人都將被中國蓬勃复興的藝術和文化受
到利多影響。

簡而言之, 文化复興 是复興學習和文化, 是智力和藝術性的成就和強健, 是和平繁
榮。它是隆盛而可能只發生在和平狀態下和安定和經濟丰盈時的巨大文明。

意大利文藝復興是与智慧運動新生人道主義相互作用 , 集中于人類興趣和价值, 著
重個體的尊嚴。中國政府注重為民有,民治,民享印證了同樣理想。

中國就當代全球性文明狀況的文明复興可能 追根連接中國顯要的過去歷史。張藝謀影片的成功, 包括了在西方, 是一個在21 世紀文化互動被接受認可新期間的例子。


藝術和文化的開花需要藝術性的自由,

中國需要維護一個開放環境, 一個 鼓勵藝術性的表達自由和自由在中國和世界之間
交換思想理念的環境。 " 讓百花綻放, 讓百家爭鳴。人所周知的電影百花獎.讓百家爭鳴?。人所周知的電影百花獎.就是
适合的流行的褒獎表達。

所有說和做, 決定性都不在于中國的文字而在于它的行為。整體世界意志都樂意看
見中國鼓勵它的文化茂盛在一個自由市場上如同中國發展它的自由市場經濟 。他們要看中國在何處開努力的水道和增長培養資源。

發生在蘇聯那里當他們非常投入它的資源在重工業和軍事技術而沒有保持与美國技
術和經濟同步幅是中國不可忘記的教訓。

在中國和平整合的教條中有有邏輯和考績。台灣問題是一個令人分心的事。但如果台灣將要獨立, 中國清楚地將不計任何后果要干預。因此反分裂法的意義在美國方面的反應要日本宣稱台灣包括在他們的聯合美日安保。美國和日本必須确保台灣總統不推擠這個遮蔽以免他們將被扯拽入一場討厭的戰爭。台灣海峽兩岸的狀態總是細密和困難的, 但戰爭不是不可避免的。兩邊的慎重將使戰爭不太可能發生。
約瑟夫Nye, 寫道: " 如果, 例如, 台灣將宣稱獨立, 中國可能不計巨大經濟和軍事
花費而用強力武裝來干預。 但它不太可能贏取這樣戰爭, 所以兩邊用慎密政策可能使這樣戰爭不太可能發生。

中國的和平性整合是符合大家利益的。 
不和平的成長? 將意味在整個亞洲太平洋地區沖突和紛亂。

中國和印度复蘇在平安和穩定的亞洲是為這個世界好。他們是新資源生命力的泉源, 增進科學和技術改進人類現況。